A Closer Look at the Reds in 2010

With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report (on February 17th) to Spring Training and just over a month until position players report (on February 22nd), the Reds haven’t made that much of a splash this off season. That is, until Owner Bob Castellini, General Manager Walt Jocketty and the Cincinnati Reds organization announced a week ago that they signed one of the most sought after free agents this year in Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a soon-to-be 22 year old left-handed pitcher stands 6’4” and weighs about 180 lbs. His fastball has been clocked at 100 mph with a plus slider and has earned comparisons to a young Randy Johnson.

The Reds made the signing after standing firm all off season long with the motto of going with what they have, as opposed to spending money that the organization really didn’t have. This has included re-signing catcher Ramon Hernandez to a lesser amount and also reworking third baseman Scott Rolen’s contract to try to give the club more flexibility. The Reds have been unable to re-sign free agent outfielder Jonny Gomes so far as the two parties have been unable to reach an agreement. But maybe there’s more to this signing than what is out there. Maybe the Reds knew they had some wiggle room to sign the young, highly demanded Chapman and at the same time, knew that they could win out over the likes of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

The signing doesn’t hamper the Reds too much though, as Chapman’s six-year, $30 million contract will be paid to him over the next ten years, with the young lefty making $1 million in 2010 with a chance of pitching for the big club. Most likely, he will start out in the minors and work his way up, as his control and need to develop a third pitch (probably a changeup) are the only things keeping him from starting the season on the opening day, 25 man roster. The signing shows that the Reds are still working toward the future, as if Chapman proves to be worth the $30 million, current Reds’ mainstays Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo could be on another team, in another city.

The Reds look to have a strong, young rotation by 2011 or 2012, as Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman could lead this team to the playoff land.

Moving past the Chapman signing, the Reds agreed on a two-year contract with pitcher Nick Masset. Masset, a current reliever, showed signs last year of becoming the future Reds’ closer after going 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 74 relief appearances. Reliever Jared Burton is the lone Red who has yet to sign after filing for arbitration. Burton, who went 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA in 53 appearances, was a bit shaky in 2009 after his breakout performances in 2007 and 2008.

The one signing the Reds have been unable to complete, which has upset Reds fans throughout the Greater Cincinnati Area, is Jonny Gomes. After being completely loaded with left-handed power bats the last few years, the Reds were finally able to find their right-handed power in outfielder Jonny Gomes, who ended 2009 with 20 home runs in only 98 games.

The inability to sign Gomes begins to show that the make-up in the outfield for 2010 could consist of Juan Francisco in left, Drew Stubbs in center and Jay Bruce in right. With Scott Rolen signed through 2012 after his contract extension in December, the chances of Francisco coming to the Big Leagues to play third base on an everyday basis seems slim to none. But with Francisco having some experience in the outfield, it looks as if Manager Dusty Baker would like the power left-hander to try playing left field in the big leagues after going 9-21 (a .429 batting average) with one home run and seven RBIs in 14 games with the Reds last September. The necessity of a shortstop that has some pop in their bat will continue to rise once the season begins if current shortstop Paul Janish is unable to hit at least .250. At the end of the year last year, Baker made it public that as long as Janish could hit .250 in the majors, the starting shortstop job is his. Janish will need to perform better than that though, as prospects Chris Valaika, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart could compete for the job within the next few years.

Currently, the Reds are talent-rich in most positions, which can only help the ball club return to the greatness this city hasn’t seen since the 1990 team and even before that in the 1970s during the Big Red Machine era.

Right or Wrong, Reds May Make Move

As of the end of the season, it looked as if the Cincinnati Reds 2010 payroll would decrease by a decent amount.  With most of the payroll being tied between Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Fransisco Cordero, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips, the Reds aren't going to have much more room to make many moves.  The one necessity that has yet to occur has been the signing of Jonny Gomes. 

For the past few years, the Reds and their fans have been crying for a power bat that swings from the right side of the plate, and the answer is Jonny Gomes.  In 98 games, Gomes hit 20 home runs with a .267 average.  In 37 games down in Louisville, he hit nine home runs.  The Reds can not let this power bat leave via free agency.  If given a chance to play 162 games, who knows how many home runs Gomes can end up with. 

At the same time, we have yet to see Joey Votto or Jay Bruce play a full year.  Votto has hit just over 20 home runs the past two years, and he missed 30 plus games in 2009.  A full season and Votto could top 30 home runs.  Same can be said for Bruce, as he missed time last year after breaking his wrist.  In 108 games in 2008, Bruce hit 21 home runs, and in '09 Bruce hit 22 home runs.  If Bruce can stay healthy, there may be a chance for 35 to 40 home runs each and every year. 

Over the last few years, the Reds have made two different moves that have baffled fans and flamed out.  The worst would have to be Willy Taveras, who just can't hit.  Shortstop Alex Gonzalez just couldn't stay healthy and was, well, overpaid.  When Gonzalez was healthy, he could play, and at times he provided some nice offense along with his spectacular defense.  Although, his defense did seem to decline during his tenure here.  Taveras was signed in December of '08 and seemed like a good move.  This would give the Reds speed in center field and a real lead off threat.  Only problem was Taveras suddenly couldn't hit his way out of an open field. 

Recently, there have been reports that the Reds are interested in signing utility man Craig Counsell.  Yes, the same Craig Counsell that was drafted in 1992.  The same Craig Counsell who will be 40 years old come August 2010.  The same Craig Counsell who has never hit more than nine home runs in a season, which he did in 2005 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  That year was the only year in which he hit more than four home runs.  The move could work if the Reds were going to sign him as a back up second baseman as he owns a very nice .991 career fielding percentage, but the Reds are looking more at shortstop.  Counsell's career fielding percentage is .981, which is ok, but Paul Janish is much better defensively. 

Counsell does have some pop in his bat, as last year for the Milwaukee Brewers he hit .285.  Before that, Counsell has hit .282 in 2002, .275 in 2001, .316 in 2000, and .299 in 1997.  In his 14 year career, Counsell has hit .275 or over just five times.  The other seasons in which he did not hit .275, he hit at least .256 or under. 

The Reds signing Counsell would be very risky.  They'd be asking a lot of someone who has been spotty at the plate most of his career.  The Reds would be better off sending Janish out to short every day next to third baseman Scott Rolen and waiting until Todd Frazier or Chris Valaika are big league ready. 

If the General Manager Walt Jocketty is going to keep making statements that the Reds won't make any moves besides re-signing players, then Jocketty should not be in contact with Craig Counsell's agent.  Trying to field a young team can be difficult at times, but adding a 39 year old utility man is definetely not the way to go.   

The Easy